Simulated age-specific LTP in men: model parameters optimized to CCHS 1.2 data. C = 0.15, r = 0.03, MR = 1.7, FNR = 0.23. These parameter values derive from multiple simulations seeking to minimize the sum or squares of differences between simulated and observed age and sex-specific LTP estimates. The r parameter represents a decline in incidence with age > 15 (an age effect). The simulation includes an adjustment that places the LTP at 5% at the low end of the age range (age 15).