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Table 1 Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC), with 95% confidence intervals and asymptotic ‘p’ value for null hypothesis that AUC does not differ from 0.5, for 56 patients of whom 12 were granted a conditional discharge

From: Prospective study of factors influencing conditional discharge from a forensic hospital: the DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery structured professional judgement instruments and risk

 

Area under the curve

95% confidence interval of area under the curve

p

Odds Ratio

95% confidence interval of odds ratio

p

Lower

Upper

Lower

Upper

DUNDRUM-1 triage security

0.624

0.446

0.802

0.192

0.915

0.767

1.078

0.286

DUNDRUM-3 programme completion

0.902

0.808

0.995

<0.001

0.695

0.561

0.861

0.001

DUNDRUM-4 recovery

0.848

0.742

0.953

<0.001

0.761

0.638

0.908

0.002

HCR-H historical

0.745

0.584

0.906

0.010

0.690

0.523

0.910

0.009

HCR-C clinical

0.820

0.691

0.949

0.001

0.513

0.319

0.824

0.006

HCR-R risk

0.663

0.497

0.828

0.086

0.673

0.427

1.060

0.087

HCR-dynamic (C + R)

0.788

0.644

0.931

0.002

0.694

0.518

0.929

0.014

HCR-total

0.838

0.710

0.966

<0.001

0.728

0.586

0.904

0.004

S-RAMM-B background

0.546

0.358

0.734

0.633

0.948

0.748

1.202

0.660

S-RAMM-C current

0.765

0.613

0.917

0.006

0.538

0.325

0.892

0.016

S-RAMM-F future

0.680

0.498

0.862

0.060

0.766

0.586

1.002

0.052

S-RAMM dynamic (C + F)

0.738

0.583

0.892

0.013

0.798

0.665

0.958

0.016

S-RAMM total

0.869

0.525

0.859

0.045

0.848

0.736

0.977

0.022

SAPRFOF

0.806

0.654

0.958

0.001

1.305

1.059

1.607

0.013

START-V

0.899

0.789

1.000

<0.001

1.430

1.135

1.803

0.002

START-S

0.904

0.755

1.000

<0.001

0.625

0.461

0.847

0.002

GAF

0.930

0.845

1.000

<0.001

1.259

1.090

1.454

0.002

PANSSpos

0.758

0.625

0.891

0.007

0.709

0.478

1.050

0.086

PANSSneg

0.809

0.693

0.925

0.001

0.739

0.557

0.982

0.037

PANSSgen

0.809

0.686

0.932

0.001

0.790

0.659

0.946

0.010

PANSStotal

0.846

0.736

0.955

<0.001

0.873

0.778

0.978

0.020

  1. Note that lower scores are calculated as positive predictors of discharge, yielding higher AUCs, except for GAF, SAPROF and START-S, where higher scores are positive predictors yielding higher AUCs. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals and Wald p value.