Figure 2

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of adult bipolar disorder (compared with no mood episodes in adulthood) among adolescents with mood disorders, according to the number of five independent child and adolescent risk factors. The following risk factors were included: disruptive disorders; feelings of worthlessness; multiple somatic symptoms; long-term depression; 1st and/or 2nd degree family histories of bipolar disorder. The presence of at least two risk factors resulted in a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 72%, whereas the presence of three or more risk factors resulted in sensitivity of 52% and specificity of 88%.