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Table 5 Performance of the Y-ACNAT-NO when predicting specific types of care needs

From: The development and validation of the Youth Actuarial Care Needs Assessment Tool for Non-Offenders (Y-ACNAT-NO)

  Construction sample Validation sample
Specific type of care needs AUC (95% CI) BS a SMBS RIS AUC (95% CI) BS a SMBS RIS
Supervision order .767*** (.745 - .788) .0636*** .0628 .0389 .741*** (.719 - .762) .0616*** .0604 .0378
Total worrisome incidents .809*** (.788 - .828) .0789 .0805 .0003 .758*** (.736 - .778) .0899 .0904 .0023
Child abuse .908*** (.892 - .921) .0458*** .0482 .0230 .823*** (.804 - .841) .0490*** .0497 .0299
Domestic violence .790*** (.769 - .810) .0721** .0744 .0051 .740*** (.718 - .761) .0797 .0821 .0093
Domestic strife .937*** (.923 - .948) .0416*** .0408 .0157 .870*** (.853 - .886) .0458*** .0442 .0220
Sexual offensive behavior .855*** (.837 - .872) .0734* .0715 .0452 .846*** (.828 - .863) .0497*** .0500 .0277
  1. aThe statistical significance of individual Brier scores was determined by calculating the Spiegelhalter’s Z statistic, with significant values indicating extreme values. Non-significant results indicate better overall performance.
  2. AUC = Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
  3. CI = Binomial exact confidence interval.
  4. BS = Brier score.
  5. SMBS = Sanders-modified Brier score (with the data grouped into eleven risk categories).
  6. RIS = Reliability-in-the-small.
  7. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < 0.001.