Fig. 2
Left panels. Marginal posterior distributions estimated for the fractional rate of increase in the per capita incidence of high to very high psychological distress (δi) and the fractional rate of increase in treatment effectiveness (δr). Median estimates and 95% credible intervals are shown in the top right corner of each panel. Prior distributions are plotted as smooth curves. The close similarity of the posterior and prior distributions for δr indicates that the available data provide no evidence for declining (or increasing) treatment effectiveness (the prior is symmetrical about 0). Right panels. Modelled trajectories for the per capita incidence of high to very high psychological distress (i) and the proportion of patients recovering with treatment (r) over the period 2008 to 2020. Pointwise 50 and 95% credible intervals (calculated from the output of 103 simulations, each using a randomly selected parameter vector θ sampled in the Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis) are indicated with dark grey shading and light grey shading, respectively