Fig. 3
A Estimates of the prevalence of high to very high psychological distress among Australian adults (18 years and above) over the period 2008 to 2020 derived from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (red open circles with 95% confidence intervals; see ref. [19]) and the system dynamics model (dark grey line, obtained assuming median parameter estimates). Pointwise 50 and 95% credible intervals (calculated from the output of 103 simulations, each using a randomly selected parameter vector θ sampled in the Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis) are indicated with dark grey shading and light grey shading, respectively. B Prevalence of high to very high psychological distress simulated under a counterfactual scenario in which per capita incidence remains constant over time (δi is set to 0; red line). The model-based estimates from panel A (where δi is estimated from the HILDA Survey data) are also plotted for comparison (dark grey line). Pointwise 50 and 95% credible intervals are indicated with dark shading and light shading, respectively