Prospective study of factors influencing conditional discharge from a forensic hospital: the DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery structured professional judgement instruments and risk

Table 4 Item to outcome measures for DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery

	AUC	95% confidence interval of AUC		p	Odds ratio	95% confidence interval of odds ratio		p
DUNDRUM-3 programme completion	AUC	Lower	Upper			Lower	Upper
PC1 (Physical health)	0.856	0.754	0.958	<0.001	0.169	0.054	0.528	0.002
PC2 (Mental health)	0.855	0.754	0.957	<0.001	0.139	0.035	0.551	0.005
PC3 (Drugs and alcohol)	0.742	0.605	0.880	0.011	0.364	0.158	0.840	0.018
PC4 (Problem behaviours)	0.865	0.763	0.966	<0.001	0.302	0.147	0.619	0.001
PC5 (Self care and activities of daily living)	0.881	0.788	0.973	<0.001	0.100	0.024	0.417	0.002
PC6 (Education, occupation and creativity)	0.850	0.743	0.958	<0.001	0.115	0.030	0.440	0.002
PC7 (Family and social networks)	0.697	0.511	0.883	0.038	0.564	0.318	0.999	0.050
DUNDRUM-4 recovery
R1 (Stability)	0.851	0.745	0.957	<0.001	0.137	0.033	0.559	0.006
R2 (Insight)	0.868	0.766	0.970	<0.001	0.068	0.009	0.493	0.008
R3 (Therapeutic rapport)	0.720	0.544	0.895	0.021	0.466	0.234	0.929	0.030
R4 (Leave)	0.711	0.571	0.852	0.026	0.466	0.232	0.939	0.033
R5 (Dynamic risk items)	0.805	0.687	0.923	0.001	0.308	0.136	0.702	0.005
R6 (Victim sensitivity)	0.748	0.586	0.910	0.009	0.500	0.295	0.849	0.010

Note that lower (better) scores are calculated to be positive predictors of discharge yielding higher AUCs. AUC area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic). ‘p’ = Asymptotic probability for null hypothesis that AUC = 0.5. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals and Wald p values.

ISSN: 1471-244X