An animated depiction of major depression epidemiology

BMC Psychiatry

Table 3 Mean values for model parameters (%), after N = 100 replications

	Main calibration	Mortality sensitivity analysis*	Strong tertiary prevention^†
Incidence at age 15 (♂)	4.2%	4.1%	4.2%
Incidence at age 15 (♀)	8.2%	8.1%	8.2%
Total lifetime prevalence	25.1%	23.3%	25.1%
Lifetime prevalence (♂)	18.5%	16.9%	18.6%
Lifetime prevalence (♀)	31.5%	29.7%	31.6%
Point prevalence	2.4%	2.1%	1.5%
Episodes lasting < 3 weeks	15.8%	15.8%	15.7%
Episodes lasting ≥ 2 years (%)	14.8%	14.8%	14.7%
Proportion MDD with single episode	16.9%	19.5%	16.9%
Lifetime morbidity proportion**	34.0%	34.2%	34.0%
Proportion relapse within 1 year	10.0%	10.5%	10.0%

* Relative risk for mortality assumed to be 1.8 rather than 1.1 in main calibration. See Appendix II for a more comprehensive set of simulations.
** the model records the number of dying entities who have had an episode during their time in the population at risk.
^† Relative risk for recurrence = 1. Risk of recurrence after multiple episodes equal to that after single episodes. N = 100 model replications. See Appendix II for a more comprehensive set of simulations.

ISSN: 1471-244X