Fig. 2

Projection method. We used the following formula: Projected number of long-term inpatients by illness = Total number of long-term inpatients in 2017 − Deaths among long-term inpatients in 2017^*1 − Number of long-term discharges to determine discharge-admission differences.^*2. ^*1 Deaths among long-term inpatients in 2017 = Number of long-term inpatients by age group × General mortality rates by age group. ^*2 Number of long-term discharges to determine discharge-admission differences = Number of discharges (excluding deaths) of long-term inpatients by illness − (Number of new long-term admissions by illness × 2017 overall survival rates by age group)